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1.
Scand J Trauma Resusc Emerg Med ; 29(1): 43, 2021 Mar 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33663559

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Falls in older Emergency Department (ED) patients may indicate underlying frailty. Geriatric follow-up might help improve outcomes in addition to managing the direct cause and consequence of the fall. We aimed to study whether fall characteristics and the result of geriatric screening in the ED are independently related to adverse outcomes in older patients with fall-related ED visits. METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of the observational multicenter Acutely Presenting Older Patient (APOP) study, of which a subset of patients aged ≥70 years with fall-related ED visits were prospectively included in EDs of two Dutch hospitals. Fall characteristics (cause and location) were retrospectively collected. The APOP-screener was used as a geriatric screening tool. The outcome was 3- and 12-months functional decline and mortality. We assessed to what extent fall characteristics and the geriatric screening result were independent predictors of the outcome, using multivariable logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: We included 393 patients (median age 80 (IQR 76-86) years) of whom 23.0% were high risk according to screening. The cause of the fall was extrinsic (49.6%), intrinsic (29.3%), unexplained (6.4%) or missing (14.8%). A high risk geriatric screening result was related to increased risk of adverse outcomes (3-months adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 2.27 (1.29-3.98), 12-months AOR 2.20 (1.25-3.89)). Independent of geriatric screening result, an intrinsic cause of the fall increased the risk of 3-months adverse outcomes (AOR 1.92 (1.13-3.26)) and a fall indoors increased the risk of 3-months (AOR 2.14 (1.22-3.74)) and 12-months adverse outcomes (AOR 1.78 (1.03-3.10)). CONCLUSIONS: A high risk geriatric screening result and fall characteristics were both independently associated with adverse outcomes in older ED patients, suggesting that information on both should be evaluated to guide follow-up geriatric assessment and interventions in clinical care.


Assuntos
Acidentes por Quedas , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência , Avaliação Geriátrica , Avaliação de Resultados em Cuidados de Saúde , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Estudos Retrospectivos , Medição de Risco
2.
Z Gerontol Geriatr ; 54(2): 113-121, 2021 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33471176

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of implementation of the acutely presenting older patient (APOP) screening program for older patients in routine emergency department (ED) care shortly after implementation. METHODS: We conducted an implementation study with before-after design, using the plan-do-study-act (PDSA) model for quality improvement, in the ED of a Dutch academic hospital. All consecutive patients ≥ 70 years during 2 months before and after implementation were included. The APOP program comprises screening for risk of functional decline, mortality and cognitive impairment, targeted interventions for high-risk patients and education of professionals. Outcome measures were compliance with interventions and impact on ED process, length of stay (LOS) and hospital admission rate. RESULTS: Two comparable groups of patients (median age 77 years) were included before (n = 920) and after (n = 953) implementation. After implementation 560 (59%) patients were screened of which 190 (34%) were high-risk patients. Some of the program interventions for high-risk patients in the ED were adhered to, some were not. More hospitalized patients received comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) after implementation (21% before vs. 31% after; p = 0.002). In 89% of high-risk patients who were discharged to home, telephone follow-up was initiated. Implementation did not influence median ED LOS (202 min before vs. 196 min after; p = 0.152) or hospital admission rate (40% before vs. 39% after; p = 0.410). CONCLUSION: Implementation of the APOP screening program in routine ED care did not negatively impact the ED process and resulted in an increase of CGA and telephone follow-up in older patients. Future studies should investigate whether sustainable changes in management and patient outcomes occur after more PDSA cycles.


Assuntos
Serviços Médicos de Emergência , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência , Idoso , Estudos Controlados Antes e Depois , Avaliação Geriátrica , Humanos , Alta do Paciente
3.
Age Ageing ; 49(6): 1034-1041, 2020 10 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32428199

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: risk stratification tools for older patients in the emergency department (ED) have rarely been implemented successfully in routine care. OBJECTIVE: to evaluate the feasibility and acceptability of the 'Acutely Presenting Older Patient' (APOP) screener, which identifies older ED patients at the highest risk of adverse outcomes within 2 minutes at presentation. DESIGN AND SETTING: 2-month prospective cohort study, after the implementation of the APOP screener in ED routine care in the Leiden University Medical Center. SUBJECTS: all consecutive ED patients aged ≥70 years. METHODS: feasibility of screening was assessed by measuring the screening rate and by identifying patient- and organisation-related determinants of screening completion. Acceptability was assessed by collecting experienced barriers of screening completion from triage-nurses. RESULTS: we included 953 patients with a median age of 77 (IQR 72-82) years, of which 560 (59%) patients were screened. Patients had a higher probability of being screened when they had a higher age (OR 1.03 (95%CI 1.01-1.06), P = 0.017). Patients had a lower probability of being screened when they were triaged very urgent (OR 0.55 (0.39-0.78), P = 0.001) or when the number of patients upon arrival was high (OR 0.63 (0.47-0.86), P = 0.003). Experienced barriers of screening completion were patient-related ('patient was too sick'), organisation-related ('ED was too busy') and personnel-related ('forgot to complete screening'). CONCLUSION: with more than half of all older patients screened, feasibility and acceptability of screening in routine ED care is very promising. To further improve screening completion, solutions are needed for patients who present with high urgency and during ED rush hours.


Assuntos
Serviços Médicos de Emergência , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Estudos de Viabilidade , Humanos , Estudos Prospectivos , Medição de Risco
4.
J Am Geriatr Soc ; 68(8): 1755-1762, 2020 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32246476

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Urgency triage in the emergency department (ED) is important for early identification of potentially lethal conditions and extensive resource utilization. However, in older patients, urgency triage systems could be improved by taking geriatric vulnerability into account. We investigated the association of geriatric vulnerability screening in addition to triage urgency levels with 30-day mortality in older ED patients. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of the observational multicenter Acutely Presenting Older Patient (APOP) study. SETTING: EDs within four Dutch hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Consecutive patients, aged 70 years or older, who were prospectively included. MEASUREMENTS: Patients were triaged using the Manchester Triage System (MTS). In addition, the APOP screener was used as a geriatric screening tool. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Comparison was made between mortality within the geriatric high- and low-risk screened patients in every urgency triage category. We calculated the difference in explained variance of mortality by adding the geriatric screener (APOP) to triage urgency (MTS) by calculating Nagelkerke R2 . RESULTS: We included 2,608 patients with a median age of 79 (interquartile range = 74-84) years, of whom 521 (20.0%) patients were categorized as high risk according to geriatric screening. Patients were triaged on urgency as standard (27.2%), urgent (58.5%), and very urgent (14.3%). In total, 132 (5.1%) patients were deceased within a period of 30 days. Within every urgency triage category, 30-day mortality was threefold higher in geriatric high-risk compared to low-risk patients (overall = 11.7% vs 3.4%; P < .001). The explained variance of 30-day mortality with triage urgency was 1.0% and increased to 6.3% by adding the geriatric screener. CONCLUSION: Combining triage urgency with geriatric screening has the potential to improve triage, which may help clinicians to deliver early appropriate care to older ED patients. J Am Geriatr Soc 68:1755-1762, 2020.


Assuntos
Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência , Avaliação Geriátrica/métodos , Serviços de Saúde para Idosos , Mortalidade/tendências , Triagem/métodos , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Países Baixos , Estudos Prospectivos , Medição de Risco , Tempo para o Tratamento
5.
PLoS One ; 14(6): e0218596, 2019.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31220173

RESUMO

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Cognitive impairment is a frequent problem among older patients attending the Emergency Department (ED) and can be the result of pre-existing cognitive impairment, delirium, or neurologic disorders. Another cause can also be acute disturbance of brain perfusion and oxygenation, which may be reversed by optimal resuscitation. This study aimed to assess the relationship between vital signs, as a measure of acute hemodynamic changes, and cognitive impairment in older ED patients. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: ED's of two tertiary care and two secondary care hospitals in the Netherlands. PARTICIPANTS: 2629 patients aged 70-years and older. MEASUREMENTS: Vital signs were measured at the moment of ED arrival as part of routine clinical care. Cognition was measured using the Six-Item Cognitive Impairment Test (6-CIT). RESULTS: The median age of patients was 78 years (IQR 74-84). Cognitive impairment was present in 738 patients (28.1%). When comparing lowest with highest quartiles, a systolic blood pressure of <129 mmHg (OR 1.30, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) 0.98-1.73)was associated with increased risk of cognitive impairment. A higher respiratory rate (>21/min) was associated with increased risk of impaired cognition (OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.58-2.95) as well as oxygen saturation of <95% (OR 1.64, 95%CI 1.24-2.19). CONCLUSION: Abnormal vital signs associated with decreased brain perfusion and oxygenation are also associated with cognitive impairment in older ED patients. This may partially be explained by the association between disease severity and delirium, but also by acute disturbance of brain perfusion and oxygenation. Future studies should establish whether normalization of vital signs will also acutely improve cognition.


Assuntos
Disfunção Cognitiva/epidemiologia , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência/estatística & dados numéricos , Sinais Vitais , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Países Baixos
6.
Eur J Emerg Med ; 26(4): 255-260, 2019 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29384753

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Self-rated health (SRH) is an important patient-reported outcome, but little is known about SRH after a visit to the emergency department (ED). We investigated the determinants of decline in SRH during 3 months after an ED visit in older patients. DESIGN: This was a multicenter prospective cohort study including acutely presenting older ( ≥ 70 years) patients in the ED (the Netherlands). Patients were asked to self-rate their health between 0 and 10. The main outcome was a decline in SRH defined as a transition of a SRH of at least 6 to a SRH of less than 6, 3 months after the patient's visit to the ED. RESULTS: Three months after the ED visit, 870 (71.4%) patients had a stable SRH and 209 (11.5%) patients declined in SRH. Independent predictors with a decline in SRH were: male gender (OR 1.83) living alone (OR 1.56), living in residential care or nursing home (OR 2.75), number of different medications (OR 1.08), using a walking device (OR 1.70), and the Katz-ADL score (OR 1.22). Patients with functional decline 3 months after an ED visit show a steeper decline in the mean SRH (0.68 points) than patients with no functional decline (0.12 points, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Decline in SRH after an ED visit in older patients is at least partly dependent on factors of functional capacity and functional decline. Preventive interventions to maintain functional status may be the solution to maintain SRH, but more research is needed to further improve and firmly establish the clinical usability of these findings.


Assuntos
Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência/estatística & dados numéricos , Medidas de Resultados Relatados pelo Paciente , Qualidade de Vida , Autorrelato , Doença Aguda , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Seguimentos , Avaliação Geriátrica/métodos , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Análise Multivariada , Países Baixos , Estudos Prospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Inquéritos e Questionários , Fatores de Tempo
7.
Eur J Emerg Med ; 26(6): 428-432, 2019 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30585854

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Delirium is a frequent problem among older patients in the emergency department (ED) and early detection is important to prevent its associated adverse outcomes. Several screening tools for delirium have been proposed for the ED, such as the 6-Item Cognitive Impairment Test (6-CIT) and the Confusion Assessment Method-ICU (CAM-ICU). Previous validation of the CAM-ICU for use in the ED showed varying results, possibly because it was administered at different or unknown time points. The aim was to study the prevalence of delirium in older ( ≥ 70 years) ED patients using the CAM-ICU and 6-CIT. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: A prospective cohort study was carried out in one tertiary care and one secondary care hospital in the Netherlands. Patients aged 70 years and older attending the ED were included. Delirium screening was performed within 1 h after ED registration using the CAM-ICU. The 6-CIT was determined for comparison using a cut-off point of at least 14 points indicating possible delirium. RESULTS: A total of 997 patients were included in the study, with a median age of 78 years (interquartile range 74-84). Delirium as assessed with CAM-ICU was positive in only 13 (1.3%, 95% confidence interval: 0.8-2.2) patients. Ninety-five (9.5% 95% confidence interval: 7.9-11.5) patients had 6-CIT more than or equal to 14. CONCLUSION: We found a delirium prevalence of 1.3% using the CAM-ICU, which was much lower than the expected prevalence of around 10% as being frequently reported in the literature and what we found when using the 6-CIT. On the basis of these results, caution is warranted to use the CAM-ICU for early screening in the ED.


Assuntos
Delírio/diagnóstico , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência , Testes de Estado Mental e Demência , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Delírio/epidemiologia , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência/estatística & dados numéricos , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Prevalência , Estudos Prospectivos , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Sensibilidade e Especificidade
8.
Dement Geriatr Cogn Dis Extra ; 8(2): 259-267, 2018.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30140275

RESUMO

AIM: The study aim was to investigate whether cognitive impairment, measured by the Six-Item Cognitive Impairment Test (6-CIT), is an independent predictor of adverse outcomes in acutely hospitalized older patients. METHODS: This was a prospective multicenter study including acutely hospitalized patients aged 70 years and older. Multivariable logistic regression was used to investigate whether impaired cognition (6-CIT ≥11 points) was an independent predictor of 90-day adverse outcome, a composite measure of functional decline and mortality. Secondary endpoints were hospital length of stay, new institutionalization, and in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: In total, 196 (15.6%) of 1,252 included patients had a 6-CIT ≥11. Median age was 80 years (interquartile range 74-85). Patients with impaired cognition had higher rates of 90-day adverse outcome (41.7% compared to 30.3% in 1,056 not cognitively impaired patients, p = 0.009). Impaired cognition was a predictor of 90-day adverse outcome with a crude odds ratio (OR) of 1.64 (95% CI 1.13-2.39), but statistical significance was lost when fully corrected for possible confounders (OR 1.44, 95% CI 0.98-2.11). For all secondary outcomes, impaired cognition was an independent predictor. CONCLUSIONS: In the acute hospital setting, the 6-CIT is associated with 90-day adverse outcome and is an independent predictor of hospital length of stay, new institutionalization, and in-hospital mortality.

9.
J Am Geriatr Soc ; 66(4): 735-741, 2018 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29489015

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To study predictors of emergency department (ED) revisits and the association between ED revisits and 90-day functional decline or mortality. DESIGN: Multicenter cohort study. SETTING: One academic and two regional Dutch hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Older adults discharged from the ED (N=1,093). MEASUREMENTS: At baseline, data on demographic characteristics, illness severity, and geriatric parameters (cognition, functional capacity) were collected. All participants were prospectively followed for an unplanned revisit within 30 days and for functional decline and mortality 90 days after the initial visit. RESULTS: The median age was 79 (interquartile range 74-84), and 114 participants (10.4%) had an ED revisit within 30 days of discharge. Age (hazard ratio (HR)=0.96, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.92-0.99), male sex (HR=1.61, 95% CI=1.05-2.45), polypharmacy (HR=2.06, 95% CI=1.34-3.16), and cognitive impairment (HR=1.71, 95% CI=1.02-2.88) were independent predictors of a 30-day ED revisit. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to predict an ED revisit was 0.65 (95% CI=0.60-0.70). In a propensity score-matched analysis, individuals with an ED revisit were at higher risk (odds ratio=1.99 95% CI=1.06-3.71) of functional decline or mortality. CONCLUSION: Age, male sex, polypharmacy, and cognitive impairment were independent predictors of a 30-day ED revisit, but no useful clinical prediction model could be developed. However, an early ED revisit is a strong new predictor of adverse outcomes in older adults.


Assuntos
Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência , Avaliação de Resultados em Cuidados de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Alta do Paciente/estatística & dados numéricos , Readmissão do Paciente/estatística & dados numéricos , Idoso , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Países Baixos , Estudos Prospectivos
10.
Emerg Med J ; 35(1): 18-27, 2018 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28814479

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop models that predict hospital admission to ED of patients younger and older than 70 and compare their performance. METHODS: Prediction models were derived in a retrospective observational study of all patients≥18 years old visiting the ED of a university hospital during the first 6 months of 2012. Patients were stratified into two age groups (<70 years old and ≥70 years old). Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify predictors of hospital admission among factors available immediately after patient arrival to the ED. Validation of the prediction models was performed on patients presenting to the ED during the second half of the year 2012. RESULTS: 10 807 patients were included in the derivation and 10 480 in the validation cohorts. The strongest independent predictors of hospital admission among the 8728 patients <70 years old were age, sex, triage category, mode of arrival, performance of blood tests, chief complaint, ED revisit, type of specialist, phlebotomised blood sample and all vital signs. The area under the curve (AUC) of the validation cohort for those <70 years old was 0.86 (95% CI 0.85 to 0.87). Among the 2079 patients ≥70 years, the same factors were predictive, except for gender, type of specialist and heart rate; the AUC was 0.77 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.79). The prediction models could identify a group of 10% of patients with the highest risk in whom hospital admission was predicted at ED triage, with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 71% (95% CI 68% to 74%) in younger patients and PPV of 87% (95% CI 81% to 92%) in older patients. CONCLUSION: Demographic and clinical factors readily available early in the ED visit can be useful in identifying patients who are likely to be admitted to the hospital. While the model for the younger patients had a higher AUC, the model for older patients had a higher PPV in identifying the patients at highest risk for admission. Of note, heart rate was not a useful predictor in the older patients.


Assuntos
Previsões/métodos , Hospitalização/tendências , Triagem/métodos , Adulto , Idoso , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência/organização & administração , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência/estatística & dados numéricos , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Países Baixos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Singapura , Triagem/estatística & dados numéricos
11.
BMC Emerg Med ; 16(1): 26, 2016 07 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27412243

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Older people frequently attend the emergency department (ED) and have a high risk of poor outcome as compared to their younger counterparts. Our aim was to study routinely collected clinical parameters as predictors of 90-day mortality in older patients attending our ED. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective follow-up study at the Leiden University Medical Center (The Netherlands) among patients aged 70 years or older attending the ED in 2012. Predictors were age, gender, time and way of arrival, presenting complaint, consulting medical specialty, vital signs, pain score and laboratory testing. Cox regression analyses were performed to analyse the association between these predictors and 90-day mortality. RESULTS: Three thousand two hundred one unique patients were eligible for inclusion. Ninety-day mortality was 10.5 % for the total group. Independent predictors of mortality were age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.06, 95 % confidence interval [95 % CI] 1.04-1.08), referral from another hospital (HR 2.74, 95 % CI 1.22-6.11), allocation to a non-surgical specialty (HR: 1.55, 95 % CI 1.13-2.14), increased respiration rate (HR up to 2.21, 95 % CI 1.25-3.92), low oxygen saturation (HR up to 1.96, 95 % CI 1.19-3.23), hypothermia (HR 2.27, 95 % CI 1.28-4.01), fever (HR 0.43, 95 % CI 0.24-0.75), high pain score (HR 1.55, 95 % CI 1.03-2.32) and the indication to perform laboratory testing (HR 3.44, 95 % CI 2.13-5.56). CONCLUSIONS: Routinely collected parameters at the ED can predict 90-day mortality in older patients presenting to the ED. This study forms the first step towards creating a new and simple screening tool to predict and improve health outcome in acutely presenting older patients.


Assuntos
Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência/estatística & dados numéricos , Mortalidade , Alta do Paciente/estatística & dados numéricos , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Feminino , Seguimentos , Nível de Saúde , Humanos , Masculino , Países Baixos , Análise de Regressão , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Fatores Sexuais , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Fatores de Tempo
12.
J Med Internet Res ; 18(4): e74, 2016 Apr 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27122359

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Increasing physical activity is a viable strategy for improving both the health and quality of life of older adults. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess if an Internet-based intervention aimed to increase physical activity was effective in improving quality of life of inactive older adults. In addition, we analyzed the effect of the intervention on quality of life among those participants who successfully reached their individually targeted increase in daily physical activity as indicated by the intervention program, as well as the dose-response effect of increasing physical activity on quality of life. METHODS: The intervention was tested in a randomized controlled trial and was comprised of an Internet program-DirectLife (Philips)-aimed at increasing physical activity using monitoring and feedback by accelerometry and feedback by digital coaching (n=119). The control group received no intervention (n=116). Participants were inactive 60-70-year-olds and were recruited from the general population. Quality of life and physical activity were measured at baseline and after 3 months using the Research ANd Development 36-item health survey (RAND-36) and wrist-worn triaxial accelerometer, respectively. RESULTS: After 3 months, a significant improvement in quality of life was seen in the intervention group compared to the control group for RAND-36 subscales on emotional and mental health (2.52 vs -0.72, respectively; P=.03) and health change (8.99 vs 2.03, respectively; P=.01). A total of 50 of the 119 participants (42.0%) in the intervention group successfully reached their physical activity target and showed a significant improvement in quality of life compared to the control group for subscales on emotional and mental health (4.31 vs -0.72, respectively; P=.009) and health change (11.06 vs 2.03, respectively; P=.004). The dose-response analysis showed that there was a significant association between increase in minutes spent in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and increase in quality of life. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that an Internet-based physical activity program was effective in improving quality of life in 60-70-year-olds after 3 months, particularly in participants that reached their individually targeted increase in daily physical activity. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Nederlands Trial Register: NTR 3045; http://www.trialregister.nl/trialreg/admin/rctview.asp?TC=3045 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6fobg2sjJ).


Assuntos
Exercício Físico , Promoção da Saúde/métodos , Internet , Qualidade de Vida , Acelerometria , Idoso , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Saúde Mental , Pessoa de Meia-Idade
13.
Intern Emerg Med ; 11(4): 587-94, 2016 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26825335

RESUMO

Acutely hospitalized older patients have an increased risk of mortality, but at the moment of presentation this risk is difficult to assess. Early identification of patients at high risk might increase the awareness of the physician, and enable tailored decision-making. Existing screening instruments mainly use either geriatric factors or severity of disease for prognostication. Predictive performance of these instruments is moderate, which hampers successive interventions. We conducted a retrospective cohort study among all patients aged 70 years and over who were acutely hospitalized in the Acute Medical Unit of the Leiden University Medical Center, the Netherlands in 2012. We developed a prediction model for 90-day mortality that combines vital signs and laboratory test results reflecting severity of disease with geriatric factors, represented by comorbidities and number of medications. Among 517 patients, 94 patients (18.2 %) died within 90 days after admission. Six predictors of mortality were included in a model for mortality: oxygen saturation, Charlson comorbidity index, thrombocytes, urea, C-reactive protein and non-fasting glucose. The prediction model performs satisfactorily with an 0.738 (0.667-0.798). Using this model, 53 % of the patients in the highest risk decile (N = 51) were deceased within 90 days. In conclusion, we are able to predict 90-day mortality in acutely hospitalized older patients using a model with directly available clinical data describing disease severity and geriatric factors. After further validation, such a model might be used in clinical decision making in older patients.


Assuntos
Avaliação Geriátrica , Mortalidade Hospitalar , Idoso , Biomarcadores/análise , Comorbidade , Testes Diagnósticos de Rotina , Feminino , Humanos , Países Baixos/epidemiologia , Polimedicação , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Prognóstico , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Sinais Vitais
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